Interesting post written by Sid over at rev2.org lists his top eight predictions for 2008:
1. Acquisitions: The following startups and companies will be acquired (and two most possible buyers in that order):
- Twitter (Yahoo! [the Yang revival?], Microsoft [the Ballmer promise?])
- Digg (New York Times, Microsoft)
- Technorati (Google, Yahoo!)
- Techmeme (New York Times, Yahoo!)
- Pownce (Microsoft, Yahoo!)
- Tumblr (Yahoo!, Microsoft)
2. Facebook: Facebook won’t die. The new Facebook is Facebook. Instead, it will continue to grow and grow — internationally more so. How will they do that? Simple, like they’ve always been — introduce revolutionary new features, fail, fail, fail, jackpot, fail, fail, fail (note that I use the term “fail” very loosely — a more appropriate phrasing would be “wen’t nowhere” or even “didn’t make the NYT.”) Contrary to many of the skepticisms over Facebook’s revenue model, Facebook will find a revenue stream and thus a way to keep its $15b valuation. If 2007 was a sky-rocketing year for Facebook this year, 2008 will be a period of steady growth, where things get a little more settled and stable. Less valuation talk, more actual work done.
3. Google: The number and rate of new Google products introduced will decrease. Instead, what will increase is the quality and reach of them — Google Reader will very possibly be among the first RSS readers to make the mainstream, the Google Office suite products (i.e. their eventual “release” updates) will continue to offer unique and interesting functionality pushing some consumers to ditch the Microsoft, Google Video will branch out into a niche: video search and attempt to do it in an awesome way, and lastly, Google News will turn into an AJAX startpage-esque product (or opt for some of that functionality). Oh, and speaking of startpages, iGoogle will either hit the mainstream jackpot or die in the minds of its current users.
4. Yahoo!: 2008, in general, will be a huge test for Yahoo! and its revival. For years they’ve been thriving on the old mainstream model, and as the web’s current highest trafficked website, they’ll be needing a Plan B to keep it alive, or simply put, hit a few jackpots from their current 10 – 20 “lab tests.” I’m not sure what to think of Jerry Yang’s recent 60-day revival strategy period and it’s fairly difficult for anyone to predict what — if anything — came out of it, but surely, Yahoo! doesn’t seem like one that is going to go away anytime soon. They won’t grow as fast as they’ve been, and at worse mostly irrelevant to the Internet industry, but as a company I think they’ve got some big challenges ahead and the advantage of playing a contender where failure isn’t a possibility but success is the golden cookie. And one of the things that’s going to be trivial in their revival strategy, I think, is going to be acquisitions and lots of them. (read: point #1)
5. Microsoft: As if Steve Ballmer’s Web 2.0 keynote wasn’t enough to say it, 2008 will be a big year for Microsoft. Obviously, we’re looking at a lot of acquisitions, products, and murders (yes, I’m talking to you, the 5 or so Live products that no one uses.) In any case, I think 2008 will be the year we know Microsoft’s stance on the web. We’ve been trying to figure it out for years and it always seems like there’s something right around the corner that is going to make it for them (remember the new MSN Search, anyone?) In any case, Bill Gates’ exit — for the good or the bad — will mean that there is increased activity in Microsoft’s Web properties. And will we find out whether the Web Office is Microsoft Office? I don’t think so, I think we’ll be needing two or three more years for that, but this won’t be stopping them from trying.
6. Buzzwords: “AJAX” will die. “The Long Tail” will die. “Folksonomy” is dead. “Crowdsourcing” hasn’t really gone anywhere, and it may or may not. “Web 2.0? is at its peak, so I think next year is going to be when its use really reduces, and 2009 when it dies completely. RSS will be replaced by “feeds”, and the buttons with simply “Subscribe.” “New media” will survive for a couple more years. “Podcasts” will survive. “Social Network” will survive to refer to anything not Facebook, and “social graph,” until Facebook is alive, will be used to refer to Facebook. And lastly, “Web 3.0? is the most unoriginal and ambiguous word that ever exists, so it’s NOT going to be the successor of Web 2.0. At least, I hope so. Need I say more?
7. iPhone: If 2007 was a big year for the iPhone, I think 2008 will be when its survival is really tested. That 10 million mark Apple’s aiming for? They’re going to get it, and not only that, I think they’ll surpass it. And with more iPhone users comes increased activity on the mobile web, which, iPhone user or not, I think is good for everyone. Of course, with the web apps not really getting anywhere among users web developers have something to cringe about, but native apps coming February and more iPhones in circulation will in the long run will prove best for all developers — web or not. And what about iPhone 2.o, you’re wondering? I’m not one to predict specific features, but I think the web experience will continue to get better and better and I can imagine a day where I’d opt for the iPhone because it’s close to me than open my Macbook and wait for Firefox to boot (yes, I know the iPhone has a great web browser interface already, but I’m still really attached to the traditional Firefox on my traditional Macbook. Either I’ll change, or the iPhone will.)
8. OpenSocial: I know you’re only reading this paragraph to find out where I think it will flop or not, so I’ll cut to the chase. I think OpenSocial has a lot to offer, but I think Facebook apps — and their usage — is more powerful that all the others combined, and there lies the future of OpenSocial. I think it’s a good attempt — great attempt — by Google, and better than any social network they could’ve built (or have), but it won’t be enough to bring down Facebook or even hurt it in any way. If anything, OpenSocial is going to validate Facebook’s model of social apps and attract more developers into the landscape. However, this doesn’t mean developers are going to not adopt it. They are, and many existing Facebook app developers are too, but what won’t equate to the Facebook advantage is the number of users and the usage.
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Users running pirated or counterfeit copies of Windows XP or Windows Server 2003 can now download Internet Explorer 7, Microsoft announced Thursday.
From the moment it released IE7 almost a year ago, Microsoft has restricted the browser to users who can prove they own a legitimate copy of the operating system. Before Microsoft allows the browser to download, it runs the user’s PC through a Windows Genuine Advantage (WGA) validation test, a prime part of XP’s antipiracy software.
When it instituted the requirement in 2006, Microsoft said rights to IE7 was one of the rewards for being legal. It changed its mind Thursday, saying the move is in users’ best interest.
“Because Microsoft takes its commitment to help protect the entire Windows ecosystem seriously, we’re updating the IE7 installation experience to make it available as broadly as possible to all Windows users,” said Steve Reynolds, an IE program manager in a posting to a Microsoft company blog. “With today’s ‘Installation and Availability Update,’ Internet Explorer 7 installation will no longer require Windows Genuine Advantage validation and will be available to all Windows XP users.”
Microsoft has consistently touted IE7 as a more secure browser, and post-launch patch counts back that up. In the past 11 months, IE6 for Windows XP SP2 has been patched for 22 vulnerabilities, 20 of them rated critical. IE7 for XP SP2, however, has been patched only 13 times; 10 of those fixes were ranked critical. In fact, when Microsoft announced that IE7 would not be offered to users running illegal copies of XP, some analysts questioned the company’s commitment to security.
Play for Market Share?
This is the first time that Microsoft has removed a WGA check for a major product. Among those that still require validation are Windows Defender, the company’s antispyware software, and Windows Media Player 11.
Several people who left comments on Reynold’s post wondered if there’s more to the decision than meets the eye. “I am guessing that this is in reaction to Firefox’s growing market share,” said someone identified as Dileepa. “I am not surprised at this at all.”
Mozilla’s Firefox has gained some ground on Internet Explorer since IE7′s launch. According to Net Applications, a Web metrics company, Firefox’s share is up by about two percentage points since October 2006, while IE’s total — IE6 and IE7 combined — slipped by more than three points.
IE7′s uptake was dramatic late last year, when it went from about a 3 percent share in October to 18 percent in December, but growth has slowed. Since April, for instance, it has increased its share by four percentage points, almost all of it at the expense of the older IE6.
The IE7 update also sports a few tweaks: The menu bar is now visible by default, for example, and a new administration kit that includes a revamped MSI installer is available to smooth corporate deployment.
Users can download IE7 from Microsoft’s site immediately or wait for it to appear in Windows Update as a high-priority item. It will take several months for Windows Update to roll out IE7 to all XP customers, and anyone dissatisfied with the new browser can downgrade to IE6 by using the Add/Remove Programs control panel applet.
A blocking tool kit is still available for companies and organizations that don’t use Windows Server Update Services and want to permanently prevent IE7 from automatically installing on PCs equipped with IE6.
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Microsoft Corp. is unveiling a Web component for its desktop-based Office programs that lets computer users store, share and comment on documents, but the software maker did not go so far as to let people create new files from scratch online.
Microsoft Office Live Workspace, as the free Web site is called, isn’t quite live. Starting Monday, users can sign up to be part of an early “beta” test of the service. A number of those users will be able to start using the service at some point this year, Microsoft said.
Office Live Workspace will give users about 250 megabytes of storage, or room to keep about 1,000 average Office documents “in the cloud.” PC users can upload Word, Excel and PowerPoint files, and use the site to e-mail friends or colleagues and invite them to read and add comments to those documents through a Web browser.
However, if users want to edit the text, they must open the document using an installed copy of Microsoft Office.
Office Live Workspace taps into a few of Microsoft’s Web offerings. Users with Hotmail, Xbox Live and other Microsoft accounts can use that information to log on to Workspace. Once there, they can use their stored contact list to send invitations.
The service is compatible with Office 2003 and Office 2007, and users will be able to save from Office to the Web site and open files they’ve stored online.
Workspace wasn’t intended as a standalone program, said Chris Capossela, a corporate vice president in Microsoft’s business software division, but rather a “companion service.” At a media event last week, Capossela and Jeff Raikes, president of the division, stressed that users were most interested in using the power of the Web to access their documents from any computer, and for collaborating, and not for creating sophisticated documents.
Office Live Workspace is not to be confused with Office Live, a set of tools Microsoft first developed to help small businesses build Web sites and manage online advertising campaigns. Office Live will be renamed Office Live Small Business, Microsoft said.
The vast majority of computer users use Word, Excel and other Office programs, in spite of challenges from open source desktop programs like OpenOffice. Google Inc. and several small startups offer Web-based word processing, spreadsheet and presentation software, and recently, Google launched tools that even let its programs work offline.
While Microsoft is officially mum on whether it will add more useful features to an online version of Office, Capossela said the software maker plans to remain the leader in productivity software.
John Rymer, an analyst for Forrester Research, said that on its own, Workspace isn’t all that exciting, but it’s unlikely Microsoft will stop there.
“The payoff is going to come later, when you’ve got editing, real collaboration … when it’s really Office reconstituted,” he said. “That’s not going to come for a while.”
After experimenting online in areas far from Microsoft’s core business software products, the software maker’s first step is, in part, meant to prove it is serious about offering software online, Rymer said.
Microsoft also announced Monday it will sell its Exchange, SharePoint and Communications server software as services over the Internet. That means that information technology departments at companies with more than 5,000 PC users won’t have to buy disks, install software and manage the server computers. Instead, Microsoft will host the software on servers in its own data centers and sell access to companies on a subscription basis.
The software maker did not disclose any pricing details.
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